Oil Pricing

 

Overnight gas price hike shown at a Chicago area BP-Amoco station (background). The Shell station (foreground) has not yet posted the 12 cent price hike.

Overnight gas price hike shown at a Chicago area BP-Amoco station (background). The Shell station (foreground) has not yet posted the 12 cent price hike.

Short-Term Oil Prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation).

Short-Term Oil Prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation).

Medium-Term Oil Prices, 1994-2007 (not adjusted for inflation).

Medium-Term Oil Prices, 1994-2007 (not adjusted for inflation).

 

Long-Term Oil Prices, 1861-2006 (top line adjusted for inflation).

Long-Term Oil Prices, 1861-2006 (top line adjusted for inflation).

References to the oil prices are usually either references to the spot price of either WTI/Light Crude as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma; or the price of Brent as traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, which the International Petroleum Exchange has been incorporated into) for delivery at Sullom Voe. The price of a barrel (which is 42 gallons) of oil is highly dependent on both its grade (which is determined by factors such as its specific gravity or API and its sulphur content) and location. The vast majority of oil will not be traded on an exchange but on an over-the-counter basis, typically with reference to a marker crude oil grade that is typically quoted via pricing agencies such as Argus Media Ltd and Platts. For example in Europe a particular grade of oil, say Fulmar, might be sold at a price of "Brent plus US$0.25/barrel" or as an intra-company transaction. IPE claim that 65% of traded oil is priced off their Brent benchmarks. Other important benchmarks include Dubai, Tapis, and the OPEC basket. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses the Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into the US as their "world oil price".
Oil demand is highly dependent on global macroeconomic conditions, so this is also an important determinant of price. Some economists claim that high oil prices have a large negative impact on the global growth. This means that the relationship between the oil price and global growth is not particularly stable although a high oil price is often thought of as being a late cycle phenomenon.
OPEC, consisting of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela, was formed to maintain the price of oil at a level most beneficial to its membership considered as a whole, and is considered to be a cartel by most observers.

Price history

Price of oil
A recent low point was reached in January 1999, after increased oil production from Iraq coincided with the Asian financial crisis, which reduced demand. The prices then rapidly increased, more than doubling by September 2000, then fell until the end of 2001 before steadily increasing, reaching US $40 to US $50 per barrel by September 2004. In October 2004, light crude futures contracts on the NYMEX for November delivery exceeded US $53 per barrel and for December delivery exceeded US $55 per barrel. Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $60 a barrel in June 2005, sustaining a rally built on strong demand for gasoline and diesel and on concerns about refiners' ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August 2005, as NYMEX crude oil futures contracts surged past the $65 mark as consumers kept up the demand for gasoline despite its high price. (see Oil price increases of 2004-2006).) Crude oil futures peaked at a close of over $77 a barrel in July 2006, and in December 2006 at about $63. That is just about where they began the year 2006.
Individuals can now trade crude oil through online trading sites margin account or their banks through structured products indexed on the Commodities markets.
See also History and Analysis of Crude Oil Prices, asymmetric price transmission, and Benchmark (crude oil)

International market

Oil consumption per capita (darker colors represent more consumption).

Oil consumption per capita (darker colors represent more consumption).

Petroleum efficiency among countries

There are two main ways to measure the petroleum efficiency of countries: by population or by GDP (gross domestic product). This metric is important in the global debate over oil consumption/energy consumption/climate change because it takes social and economic considerations into account when scoring countries on their oil consumption/energy consumption/climate change goals. Nations such as China and India with large populations tend to promote the use of population based metrics, while nations with large economies would tend to promote the GDP based metric.

Selected Nations

Oil Efficiency (US dollar/barrel/day)

Switzerland

3.75

United Kingdom

3.34

Norway

3.31

Austria

2.96

France

2.65

Germany

2.89

Sweden

2.71

Italy

2.57

European Union

2.52

DRC

2.4

Japan

2.34

Australia

2.21

Spain

1.96

Bangladesh

1.93

Poland

1.87

United States

1.65

Belgium

1.59

World

1.47

Turkey

1.39

Canada

1.35

Mexico

1.07

Ethiopia

1.04

South Korea

1.00

Philippines

1.00

Brazil

0.99

Taiwan

0.98

China

0.34

Nigeria

0.94

Pakistan

0.93

Myanmar

0.89

India

0.86

Russia

0.84

Indonesia

0.71

Vietnam

0.61

Thailand

0.53

Saudi Arabia

0.46

Egypt

0.41

Singapore

0.40

Iran

0.35

 

Selected Nations

Oil Efficiency (barrel/person/day)

DRC

0.13

Ethiopia

0.37

Bangladesh

0.57

Myanmar

0.73

Pakistan

1.95

Nigeria

2.17

India

2.18

Vietnam

2.70

Philippines

3.77

Indonesia

4.63

China

4.96

Egypt

7.48

Turkey

9.85

Brazil

11.67

Poland

11.67

World

12.55

Thailand

13.86

Russia

17.66

Mexico

18.07

Iran

21.56

European Union

29.70

United Kingdom

30.18

Germany

32.31

France

32.43

Italy

32.43

Austria

34.01

Spain

35.18

Switzerland

34.64

Sweden

34.68

Taiwan

41.68

Japan

42.01

Australia

42.22

South Korea

43.84

Norway

52.06

Belgium

61.52

United States

68.81

Canada

69.85

Saudi Arabia

75.08

Singapore

178.45

 

(Note: The figure for Singapore is skewed because of its small population compared with its large oil refining capacity. Most of this oil is sent to other countries.)

Top petroleum-producing countries

Oil producing countries

Oil producing countries

In order of amount produced in 2004 in MMbbl/d & ML/d:


Producing Nation for 2004

(×106bbl/d)

(×103m³/d)

1

Saudi Arabia (OPEC)

10.37

1,649

2

Russia

9.27

1,474

3

United States 1

8.69

1,382

4

Iran (OPEC)

4.09

650

5

Mexico 1

3.83

609

6

China 1

3.62

576

7

Norway 1

3.18

506

8

Canada 1,3

3.14

499

9

Venezuela (OPEC) 1

2.86

455

10

United Arab Emirates (OPEC)

2.76

439

11

Kuwait (OPEC)

2.51

399

12

Nigeria (OPEC)

2.51

399

13

United Kingdom 1

2.08

331

14

Iraq (OPEC) 2

2.03

323

1 peak production of conventional oil already passed in this state
2 Though still a member, Iraq has not been included in production figures since 1998
3 Canada has the world's second largest oil reserves when tar sands are included, and is the leading source of U.S. imports, averaging 1.7 MMbbl/d in April 2006.

Top petroleum-exporting countries

Oil exports by country

Oil exports by country

In order of amount exported in 2003:

  1. Saudi Arabia (OPEC)
  2. Russia
  3. Norway 1
  4. Iran (OPEC)
  5. United Arab Emirates (OPEC)
  6. Venezuela (OPEC) 1
  7. Kuwait (OPEC)
  8. Nigeria (OPEC)
  9. Mexico 1
  10. Algeria (OPEC)
  11. Libya (OPEC) 1

1 peak production already passed in this state
Note that the USA consumes almost all of its own production, while the UK has recently become a net-importer rather than net-exporter.
Total world production/consumption (as of 2005) is approximately 84 million barrels per day.

See also: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Top petroleum-consuming countries

 

Consuming Nation

(bbl/day)

(m³/day)

1

United States

20,030,000

3,184,516

2

China

6,391,000

1,016,088

3

Japan

5,578,000

886,831

4

Russia

2,800,000

445,164

5

Germany

2,677,000

425,609

6

India

2,320,000

368,851

7

Canada

2,300,000

365,671

8

South Korea

2,061,000

327,673

9

France

2,060,000

327,514

10

Italy

1,874,000

297,942

11

Saudi Arabia

1,775,000

282,202

12

Mexico

1,752,000

278,546

13

United Kingdom

1,722,000

273,776

14

Brazil

1,610,000

255,970

Source: CIA World Factbook

Top petroleum-importing countries

Oil imports by country

Oil imports by country

 

Importing Nation

(bbl/day)

(m³/day)

1

United States

13,150,000

2,790,683

2

Japan

5,449,000

866,322

3

China

3,226,000

512,893

4

Netherlands

2,284,000

363,127

5

France

2,281,000

362,650

6

South Korea

2,263,000

359,788

7

Italy

2,158,000

343,095

8

Germany

2,135,000

339,438

9

India

2,090,000

332,283

10

Spain

1,582,000

251,518

11

United Kingdom

1,084,000

172,342

12

Belgium

1,042,000

165,665

13

Canada

963,000

153,105

14

Turkey

616,500

98,016

Source: CIA World Factbook

Top petroleum non-producing and consuming countries

Consuming Nation

(bbl/day)

(m³/day)

1

Japan

5,578,000

886,831

2

Germany

2,677,000

425,609

3

India

2,320,000

368,851

4

South Korea

2,061,000

327,673

5

France

2,060,000

327,514

6

Italy

1,874,000

297,942

7

Spain

1,537,000

244,363

8

Netherlands

946,700

150,513

Source : CIA World Factbook

 

 

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