Nuclear Powers

Status of World Nuclear Forces 

 

 

 

More than a decade and a half after the Cold War ended, the world's combined stockpile of nuclear warheads remain at a very high level: more than 22,000. Of these, nearly 8,000 warheads are considered operational, of which almost 2,000 U.S. and Russian warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.

The exact number of nuclear weapons in each country's possession is a closely held national secret. Despite this limitation, however, publicly available information and occasional leaks make it possible to make best estimates about the size and composition of the national nuclear weapon stockpiles:

Status of World Nuclear Forces 2010*
Country	Strategic	Non-Strategic	Operational	Total Inventory
Russia	2,600	2,050a	4,650	12,000b
United States	1,968	500c	2,468d	9,600e
France	300	n.a.	~300	300f
China	180	?	~180	240g
United Kingdom	160	n.a.	<160	225h
Israel	80	n.a.	n.a.	80i
Pakistan	70-90	n.a.	n.a.	70-90i
India	60-80	n.a.	n.a.	60-80i
North Korea	<10	n.a.	n.a.	<10j
Total:	~5,400k	~2,550k	~7,700k	~22,600k

 

* All numbers are estimates and further described in the Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the nuclear appendix in the SIPRI Yearbook. Additional reports are published on the FAS Strategic Security Blog. Unlike those publications, this table is updated continuously as new information becomes available. Current update: May 26, 2010.

a Russia's estimated total inventory of non-strategic warheads is approximately 5,390 warheads, down from 15,000 in 1991.
b The estimate for the size and composition of the total Russian inventory comes with considerable uncertainty but is based on Cold War levels, subsequent dismantlement rates, and official Russian statements. Perhaps as many as a quarter (~3,000) of the weapons listed may be awaiting dismantlement. An estimated average of 1,000 retired warheads are dismantled per year.
 c Approximately 200, probably including some inactive warheads, are deployed in Europe.
 d An additional 2,500 warheads are spares and in central storage and not counted as operational.
 e In addition to the 5,100 warheads in the DOD stockpile, approximately 3,500-4,500 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement. In addition, nearly 14,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 5,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) are in storage.
 f France is thought to have a small inventory of spare warheads but no reserve like the United States and Russia. An additional reduction announced by President Sarkozy in March 2008 will reduced the inventory to slightly less than 300 warheads in 2009.
 g Many "strategic" warheads are for regional use. The status of a Chinese non-strategic nuclear arsenal is uncertain. Some deployed warheads may not be fully operational. Additional warheads are in storage, for a total stockpile of approximately 240 warheads.
 h Only 50 missiles are left, for a maximum of 150 warheads. “Less than 160” warheads are said to be "operationally available," but a small number of spares probably exist too. Forty-eight missiles are needed to arm three SSBNs with a maximum of 144 warheads. One submarine with “up to 48 warheads” is on patrol at any given time. In addition to the 160 operationally available warheads, another 65 or so are in reserve for a total stockpile of 225.
 i All warheads of the four lesser nuclear powers are considered strategic. Only some of these may be operational. India and Pakistan are increasing their inventories, with Pakistan thought to have a slight lead.
 j Despite two North Korean nuclear tests, there is no publicly available evidence that North Korea has operationalized its nuclear weapons capability. A 2009 world survey by the U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) does not credit any of North Korea's ballistic missiles with nuclear capability.
 k Numbers may not add up due to rounding and uncertainty about the operational status of the four lesser nuclear weapons states and the uncertainty about the size of the total inventories of three of the five initial nuclear powers.

The information available for each country varies greatly, ranging from the most transparent nuclear weapons state (United States) to the most opaque (North Korea). Accordingly, while the stockpile for the United States is based on real numbers, the North Korean stockpile is highly uncertain. Indeed, although U.S. Intelligence claims that North Korea may have assembled a few nuclear weapons and North Korea claims to have some, no information is available in the public domain that proves that North Korea has assembled a nuclear weapons much less has an operational nuclear weapon.

(Data as of March 2008)

 

Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945–2010

As Russia and the United States continue to reduce their Cold War arsenals, global
inventories of nuclear weapons will continue to decline. Yet eight of the nine nulcear states continue to produce new or modernized nuclear weapons.

By Rob ert S. Norri s & Hans M. Kri stensen

Excessive secrecy prohibits the public from knowing the exact number of nuclear weapons in the world. Nuclear weapon states shield details about their arsenals and generally have only imprecise knowledge about the size and composition of other countries’ inventories; this creates uncertainty, mistrust, and misunderstandings. More transparency would alleviate this, and in fact, Britain, France, and the United States have recently taken steps to provide additional nuclear data to the public.

We estimate that the world’s nine nuclear weapon states possess nearly 22,400 intact nuclear warheads. The vast majority of these weapons—approximately 95 percent—are in the U.S. and Russian arsenals. Nearly 8,000 warheads—nearly one-third of the worldwide total—are operational to some degree (not necessarily fully operational) and ready to launch on relatively short notice. We estimate that approximately 1,880 warheads are on different levels of alert: Russia, 960 warheads; United States, 810; France, 64; and Britain,48.

The stockpiles of the nations that are not recognized as nuclear weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea—are minuscule in comparison
with those of Russia and the United States and are especially difficult to estimate. India and Pakistan have a combined total of approximately 150 nuclear warheads, just a few more than what is carried on a single U.S. Trident submarine. Though Israel has not acknowledged it possesses nuclear weapons, the U.S. intelligence community estimates that it has an arsenal of approximately 80 warheads. North Korea remains a mystery, but it may have enough fissile material for nine warheads.

We calculate that more than 128,000 nuclear warheads were built since 1945, all but 2 percent by the United States (55 percent) and the Soviet Union/Russia (43 percent). After peaking in 1986, global nuclear weapon levels have declined, as illustrated in the figure “Total Nuclear Weapons Worldwide, 1945–2010.” Since the end of the Cold War, more and more warheads in the U.S. and Russian stockpiles have been moved from operational status to various reserve, inactive, or contingency categories. Traditionally, arms control agreements have not only failed to require the destruction of warheads, but have also ignored both nonstrategic and non-deployed warheads. The recently renegotiated and signed Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) continues this trend, although the U.S. and Russian governments have pledged that a possible future agreement will include non-deployed and nonstrategic weapons.

Nuclear Weapons inventories, 2010

country	st rategic1	nonstrategic	operational	total inventory
Russia	2,600	2,050	4,650	12,0002
United States	1,968	5003	2,468	9,400
France	300	–	~300	3004
China	180	?	~180	2405
Britain	225	–	<160	2256
Israel	60–80	–	–	60–80
Pakistan	70–90	–	–	70–90
India	60–80	–	–	60–80
North Korea7	–	–	–	<10
Total8	~5,500	~2,550	~7,700	~22,400

 1. Warheads belonging to Israel, Pakistan, India, and North Korea are considered strategic; only some (if any) may be fully operational. Both Pakistan and India are increasing their arsenals.
2. Only about 2,050 of Russia’s 5,390 nonstrategic warheads (down from 15,000 in 1991) are believed to be in some form of operational status. The estimate for the size and composition of the total Russian inventory comes with considerable uncertainty. Perhaps as many 3,000 of the weapons listed may be awaiting dismantlement. Russia dismantles an estimated average of 1,000 retired warheads per year.
3. Of the 500 nonstrategic U.S. warheads, approximately 200 are deployed in Europe.
4. France may have a small inventory of spare warheads, but it holds no reserve warheads, unlike the United States and Russia. As per Sarkozy’s 2008 statement, the French arsenal is expected to shrink slightly.
5. Many “strategic” warheads are for regional use. The status of a Chinese nonstrategic nuclear arsenal is uncertain, and China’s deployed warheads are not thought to be fully operational (that is, mated with delivery systems). China holds additional warheads in storage, for a total stockpile of approximately 240 warheads.
6. Britain currently has only 50 missiles, which together can carry a maximum of 150 warheads. Forty-eight missiles are needed to arm three nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SS BNs), with a maximum of 144 warheads; only a single British SS BN is on patrol at any given time.
7. There is no publicly available evidence that North Korea has operationalized its nuclear weapons capability. A 2009 survey by the U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center does not credit any of North Korea’s ballistic missiles with nuclear capability.
8. Numbers may not add up due to rounding and uncertainties about operational status (particularly for warheads of the four newer nuclear weapon states) and total inventories (Russia and China).

Although the total number of nuclear warheads around the world is decreasing due mainly to U.S. and Russian reductions, this trend may obscure the fact that most nuclear weapon states continue to modernize or update their nuclear arsenals and that nuclear weapons
remain integral to their national security outlooks. Brief summaries follow for the nine nuclear weapon states.

United States
The United States possesses an estimated 9,400 intact warheads. This includes approximately 5,100 warheads in the custody of the Pentagon: 2,468 of these weapons are considered operational; the other 2,600 are spares centrally stored in reserve.
The Energy Department is believed to store 3,500–4,500 intact but retired warheads; these are slated for dismantlement by 2022 at the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas.
Of the more than 70,000 warheads that the United States has produced since 1945, more than 60,000 have been disassembled— more than 13,000 of these since 1990. However, the United States has retained nearly 14,000 plutonium cores (pits) from its dismantled warheads, storing them at the Pantex Plant. It also stores some 5,000 canned assemblies (secondaries) at the Y-12 facility in Tennessee.
The United States is modifying existing warheads under socalled life extension programs, and the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review leaves the door open for replacement warheads in the future.1

Russia
Russia has released very little information about the size of its stockpile, and its future plans are not known. We estimate that since 1949 the Soviet Union/Russia has produced some 55,000 nuclear warheads and that it had about 30,000 warheads in 1991 at the end of the Cold War.
Based on statements from Russian officials and U.S. assessments of Russian dismantlement rates, we estimate the number of intact Russian warheads to be approximately 12,000, of which about 4,650 are considered operational.2
Over the past two decades, two trends have emerged: Russia has been decreasing its deployed/operational forces, and at the same time it has been reducing its number of intact warheads via an ongoing dismantlement effort. The former has outpaced the latter,
leaving a large backlog of warheads to be eventually taken apart.
Russia has continued to reproduce existing nuclear warhead designs, as opposed to the U.S. approach of extending the life of warheads, but production of new systems is thought to be slow.3

Britain
The current nuclear stockpile in Britain consists of about 225 warheads for delivery by Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) aboard Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). According to the British government, “fewer than 160” of the warheads are operationally available, and one SSBN with “up to 48 warheads” is on patrol at any given time. A decision about upgrading the warhead is expected in the near future.
The British arsenal peaked in the 1970s at 350 warheads, and Britain is estimated to have produced approximately 1,200 warheads since 1953.

France
There are approximately 300 warheads in France’s nuclear stockpile, down from some 540 in 1992; in March 2008, President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that the French arsenal would be reduced to slightly fewer than 300 warheads. We estimate that France has produced more than 1,260 nuclear warheads since 1964.
France expects to deploy the M51 SLBM with a modified warhead on the Terrible SSBN this year, and it has already begun to introduce its new nuclear cruise missile, the Air-Sol Moyenne Portée-A.

China
We estimate that China has an arsenal of 240 nuclear warheads and that it has produced approximately 600 nuclear warheads since becoming a nuclear power in 1964. China’s warheads arm old liquid-fueled ballistic missiles that are being phased out as well as new solid-fuel missiles that are being introduced; China also has a small inventory of air-delivered nuclear bombs. China keeps additional warheads in storage.
The U.S. intelligence community predicts that China will increase its total number of warheads on long-range ballistic missiles from about 50 to well over 100 in the next 15 years.

India and Pakistan
Neither India nor Pakistan has released official information to the public regarding the size of their nuclear arsenals. India is estimated to have assembled 60–80 warheads and produced enough fissile material for 60–105 nuclear warheads; Pakistan is estimated to have assembled 70– 90 warheads and produced fissile material for as many as 90 warheads. The majority of India’s and Pakistan’s warheads are not yet operationally deployed. Both countries are believed to be increasing their stockpiles.

Israel
In keeping with its policy of nuclear opacity, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied possession of nuclear weapons; however, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded in 1999 that Israel had produced approximately 80 warheads. The DIA projected that Israel’s nuclear stockpile would only modestly increase by 2020.4 Israel is estimated to have produced enough fissile material sufficient for 115–190 warheads.

North Korea
Despite two nuclear tests and production of enough plutonium for 8–12 nuclear bombs, North Korea has yet to demonstrate that it has operationalized any weapons.

The U.S. intelligence community has yet to credit North Korea’s missile systems with a nuclear weapons capability, meaning that Pyongyang is not believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead with a missile.

 

THE FUTURE

As Russia and the United States continue to reduce their Cold War arsenals, global inventories of nuclear weapons will continue to decline.

Yet eight of the nine nuclear weapon states continue to produce new or modernized nuclear weapons, and all nine insist that nuclear weapons are essential for their national security.

Russia and the United States have recommitted to maintaining a triad of nuclear strategic forces; China is seeking to build a triad, and France and Britain have pledged to keep their nuclear weapons.

India and Pakistan are both increasing their nuclear forces and building new plutonium production reactors, which could add to their fissile material stocks.

Whether Israel’s nuclear arsenal remains opaque probably will depend on Iran, which appears to be as few as four and as many as 10 years away from joining the nuclear club, depending upon different estimates.

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